The COVID epidemic and the economic activity with acquired immunity

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La serie Borradores de Economía es una publicación de la Subgerencia de Estudios Económicos del Banco de la República. Los trabajos son de carácter provisional, las opiniones y posibles errores son responsabilidad exclusiva del autor y sus contenidos no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva.

Autor o Editor
Juan Esteban Carranza
Juan David Martin
Álvaro José Riascos

The series Borradores de Economía (Working Papers on Economics) contributes to the dissemination and promotion of the work by researchers from the institution. On multiple occasions, these works have been the result of collaborative work with individuals from other national or international institutions. This series is indexed at Research Papers in Economics (RePEc)

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The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors. 


We calibrate a macroeconomic model with epidemiological restrictions using Colombian data. The key feature of our model is that a portion of the population is immune and cannot transmit the virus, which improves substantially the fit of the model to the observed contagion and economic activity data. The model implies that government restrictions and the endogenous changes in individual behavior saved around 15,000 lives and decreased consumption in 2020 by about 4.7%. The results suggest that most of this effect was the result of the government policies