Eliana González

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A Dynamic Factor Model for the Colombian Inflation

We use a dynamic factor model proposed by Stock and Watson [1998, 1999, 2002a,b] to forecast Colombian inflation. The model includes 92 monthly series observed over the period 1999:01-2008:06. The results show that for short-run horizons, factor model forecasts significantly outperformed the...

Assessing Inflationary Pressures in Colombia

The assessment of inflationary pressures in Colombia has faced two important challenges in the present decade. The first one occurred in 2006 and consisted of detecting an overheating economy in the midst of fast growing investment and increasing measured productivity. The second challenge took...

Bayesian Model Averaging. An Application to Forecast Inflation in Colombia

An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as...

Box 2: Formation of Inflation Expectations in Colombia

For central banks that have adopted an inflation targeting strategy, measuring and understanding inflation expectations are important tasks when designing monetary policy, because they influence the dynamics of price increases in a number of ways.

Commodity Price Shocks and Inflation within An Optimal Monetary Policy Framework: The case of Colombia

A small open macroeconomic model, in which an optimal interest rate rule emerges to drive the inflation behavior, is used to model inflation within an inflation targeting framework. This set up is used to estimate the relationship between commodity prices shocks and the inflation process in a...

Estimations of the natural rate of interest in Colombia

Three methodologies to estimate the natural interest rate, NIR, are implemented for the Colombian economy. Two methods are statistical filters and the third involves some economic theory. The first method is based on unobserved components decomposition of the real interest rate and explores the...

Forecasting Food Inflation in Developing Countries with Inflation Targeting Regimes

Artículo publicado en: American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 94, num. 1, pp. 153–173, 2012.


Forecasting Food Price Inflation in Developing Countries with Inflation Targeting Regimes: the Colombian Case