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Together with a set of not commonly reported ones, the most widely known stylized facts of high frequency Nominal Exchange Rates in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru with respect to the US Dollar are studied and interpreted to the light of recent literature in this paper.

We argue that international lenders take into account that taxes (or subsidies) affect borrowers’ available income for debt repayments. Using an endowment-economy model, we show that by incorporating this fact into the analysis of …financial crises from the pecuniary externality perspective, ex-…

The sudden collapse of oil prices poses a challenge to inflation targeting central banks in oil exporting economies. This paper illustrates that challenge and conducts a quantitative assessment of the impact of permanent changes in oil prices in a small and open economy, in which oil represents…

We embed a small open economy model for Colombia into the global risk model of Gómez-Pineda, Guillaume, and Tanyeri (2014). The small open economy model is estimated by Bayesian methods and used for analysis and projections. The model enable us to give a consistent treatment of shocks to global…

In this paper we set up a small open economy model with financial frictions, following Curdia and Woodford (2010)’s model. Unlike other results in the literature such as Curdia and Woodford (2010), McCulley and Ramin (2008) and Taylor (2008), we find that optimal monetary policy should not…

This paper presents an analysis of the exchange rate pass-through mechanism for the Mexican economy after the formal adoption of inflation targeting policy. In particular, this research work analyzes how a change in the nominal exchange rate depreciation is transmitted to domestic prices along…

We study …nancial crises in a small open production economy subject to credit constraint and uncertainty on the value of debt repayments. We …nd that the possibility of reducing the severity of future crises encourages the central planner (CP) to increase both the crisis frequency and current…

In this document we lay out the microeconomic foundations of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, called Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs (PATACON), designed as a forecast tool and as a guide to advise monetary policy authorities in Colombia. In companion documents we…

We explore the performance of a set of early warning indicators for a group of Latin American economies under the endogenous cycle perspective. For this group of countries, the paper confirms the results of previous work on industrialized countries, which indicate that a…

This paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in explaining business cycle and international trade developments in fifteen emerging market economies. Results from sign-restricted VARs show that developments in real output, inflation and international trade variables are…

Can frictionless small open economy models driven solely by technology shocks account for business cycles in developing countries? We do not find evidence of it. We build a DSGE model that jointly includes a variety of real perturbations in addition to technology shocks, such as procyclical…

Optimal Commodity Price Stabilization over the Business Cycle   Optimal Commodity Price Stabilization over the Business Cycle Rodrigo Suescún*

A Model of the Nominal and Real Exchange in Colombia A Model of the Nominal and Real Exchange in Colombia   Javier Gómez*

This paper examines the role of exchange rates in determining the short-and-long-run trade balance behavior for Colombia. Conventional wisdom says that a nominal devaluation improves the trade balance. This conjecture is rooted in the Bickerdike- Robinson-Metzler (BRM) and Marshall-Lerner (ML)…

Sudden stops seem to create the perfect environment for disinflation, especially when central banks defend the exchange rate by increasing interest rates. We propose a variation of the output gap model that incorporates the sudden stop shock. The use of the model in policy analysis shows that…

Capital inflows and outflows often remind policymakers of the monetary policy “trilemma” and the several associated dilemmas. To tackle these dilemmas, an equilibrium model of capital flows is proposed. The model captures bouts of capital inflows and outflows with shocks to the emerging-market…

We develop a small open economy model with sectorial balance sheets that are exchange rate exposed and with sectorial stock and flow consistency. The model is perturbed by a shock to investor sentiment and a sudden stop to capital inflow. It is used to evaluate the claims that usually back the…

Since 1991, inflation in Colombia was reduced from 25% on average to about 6% more recently. Although this performance is in line with a long run inflation target of 3%, some analysts ask whether the Central Bank should continue disinflating. In this paper we present a dynamic stochastic general…