Statistical Annex - Governor´s Report. Published on July 4th, 2017


 

 


CURRENT SITUATION OF THE COLOMBIAN ECONOMY

 

This is the Statistical Annex of a new publication by the Governor of the Central Bank of Colombia. It is addressed to citizens, analysts, and domestic and foreign investors interested in learning about the most recent events in the Colombian economy, and their implications for monetary policy decision-making. The Statistical Annex will be updated on a monthly basis.

 

 
 

MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES

MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR EXTERNAL SECTOR
 


 

 
 MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
 
    Annual growth rate (%)
2015 2016    Q1 2016 Q1 2017
GDP 3.1 2.0    2.7 1.1 
Total Consumption 3.6 2.0   3.1 1.4 
Gross Investment 1.2 -4.5   -3.8 0.2 
Manufacturing 1.7 3.0   4.3 0.3 
Total goods exports (FOB) -34.5 -12.6   -31.3 31.4 
Total goods imports (FOB) -15.5 -17.0   -25.1  7.0 
  % of GDP
Trade Balance, FOB -4.7 -3.6    -5.0 -2.8
Current Account -6.4 -4.4   -5.9  -4.4 

Source: DANE, Banco de la República.

 

 


 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR
 
MONETARY AGGREGATES     Billions of pesos   Annual Variation (%)
March 2017  April 2017  May 2017    March 2017 / March 2016 April 2017 / April 2016 May 2017 / May 2016
Monetary Base 80,159  77,101 76,472   2.45  -1.24 -2.58
M1  93,479  91,556 91,224    -2.78  -2.17  0.16
M2 408,947  410,771 410,755   4.99  5.54  5.73 
M3 445,724 450,218 446,002   5.69 6.69 5.73

 

 CREDIT   Billions of pesos    Annual Variation (%)
ADJUSTED NET DEBT PORTFOLIO  March 2017 April 2017 May 2017   March 2017 / March 2016  April 2017 / April 2016  May 2017 / May 2016
Legal Currency 366,941 369,133 370,594   7.54 7.08 6.60
Foreign Currency 20,884 21,501 21,253   -10.24 -1.20  -9.16 
Total 387,825 390,634 391,847   6.41 6.59 5.61

 

INTEREST RATES     Percentage
January 2017 February 2017 March 2017  April 2017  May 2017
Intervention Rate 1/ 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.50 6.25
IBR to one day 7.50 7.47 7.19 6.99 6.48
Interbank Rate (TIB)  7.51 7.48 7.19 6.99 6.48
DEPOSIT RATES January 2017 February 2017  March 2017  April 2017  May 2017
DTF  6.94 6.78 6.65 6.53 6.17
Fixed-term Deposit Certificate to 90 days  6.94 6.75 6.22 6.28 5.77
ACTIVE RATES January 2017 February 2017  March 2017  April 2017  May 2017
Banco de la República’s Active Rate 2/  15.11 14.87 15.13 14.47 14.02
Total placements 15.07 14.82 15.07 14,41 13.94
Consumption Credit 20.88 20.03  19.78 19.87 19.78 
Ordinary Credit  14.30 13.79 13.84 13.71 13.37
Preferential Credit 11.27 11.37 11.22 10.65 10.09
Treasury Credit 12.22 12.03 11.96 11.26 10.68
Micro-credit 37.74 37.72 36.77 36.84 36.76
Construction 3/ 12.01 11.65 11.87 11.49 11.06
Housing Acquisition 3/ 12.50 12.60 12.46 12.42 12.39

 

CPI INFLATION     Percentage
January 2017 February 2017  March 2017  April 2017  May 2017
Total 5.47 5.18 4.69 4.66 4.37
Food 5.97 5.21 3.65 2.49 2.09
Tradables 5.37 5.75 5.59 5.35 4.88
Non-tradables 4.83 5.06 5.33 5.22 5.25
Regulated 5.93 4.55 4.05 6.75 6.24
CORE INFLATION INDICATORS   January 2017 February 2017  March 2017 April 2017  May 2017
Excluding food 5.26 5.17 5.13 5.60 5.35
Excluding food and regulated items 5.06 5.35 5.44 5.28 5.09
Excluding primary food, public utilities, and fuel 5.95 5.74 5.61 5.37 5.29
CPI - Core 20 6.18 6.03 6.01 5.84 5.59

 

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS   Percentage
 MONTHLY SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS TO ANALYSTS  January 2017 February 2017 March 2017 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017
To December 2017  4.51 4.61 4.49 4.39 4.45 4.37
To December 2018  3.62 3.68 3.60 3.50 3.57 3.54
FORWARD BREAK-EVEN INFLATION (FBEI)  January 2017 February 2017 March 2017 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017
For 2017  4.63 5.27 5.24 5.01 5.25 5.06
For 2018 3.12 3.32 3.28 3.13 3.38 3.27

 

 
 EXTERNAL SECTOR

NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE     Pesos per US dollar
January 2017 February 2017  March 2017  April 2017  May 2017
Average 2,945 2,882 2,943 2,874 2,924
End of: 2,937 2,896 2,880 2,948 2,920
REAL EXCHANGE RATE INDEX   January 2017 February 2017 March 2017 April 2017 May 2017
Non-Traditional RER index (CPI) 123.87 121.79 125.19 121.96 124.51
Non-Traditional RER index (PPI)  121.34 120.74 123.73 120.81 123.40

  

NET DIRECT INVESTMENT 4/     Millions of US dollars
2015 2016    Q1 2016 Q1 2017
Foreign Direct Investment in Colombia 11,732 13,687   4,703 2,515
Colombian Investment Abroad 4,218 4,516   969 716

 

NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (NIR) Millions of US dollars
January 2017 February 2017 March 2017  April 2017  May 2017
46,982 46,986 46,932 46,936 47,153

 

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INDICATORS 5/    January 2017 February 2017   March 2017  April 2017  May 2017
NIR/M3 31.22 30.52  30.33 30.69 30.88
  2015 2016   Q1 2016 Q1 2017  
NIR/GDP 16.04 16.51   16.90 15.89  
NIR/(Current account deficit + current year debt amortization) 6/ 1.10 1.36   1.17 1.28  

Source: Banco de la República.

NOTES:

1/ This is Banco de la República’s benchmark intervention rate according to the decision reached by the Board of Directors in said month, enforceable since the first working day after that session.

2/ Calculated as the weighted average value per amount for consumption, credit, preferential, ordinary, and treasury rates. Due to the high rotation of treasury credit, its weight was determined as the fifth part of its weekly disbursement.

3/ This corresponds to non-VIS weighted housing rates in UVR and pesos.

4/ According to the information from the balance of payments.

5/ The indicators at the closing of each quarter are calculated based on the data from the last four quarters.

6/ This includes long-term amortizations and the balance of the short-term debt from a year before.


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