Statistical Annex - Governor´s Report.

 


This is the Statistical Annex of a new publication by the Governor of the Central Bank of Colombia. It is addressed to citizens, analysts, and domestic and foreign investors interested in learning about the most recent events in the Colombian economy, and their implications for monetary policy decision-making.


  
 


 

 
 MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
 
    Annual growth rate (%)
2015 2016    Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016   Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017
GDP 3.1 2.0    2.7 2.5 1.2   1.2 1.3 2.0
Total Consumption 3.6 2.0    3.1 2.3 0.9   1.7 2.1 n.d.
Gross Investment 1.2 -4.5    -3.8 -4.7 -6.2   0.0 1.3 n.d.
Manufacturing 1.7 3.0    4.3 5.5 1.3   0.3 -3.3 n.d.
  % of GDP
Trade Balance (FOB) -4.7 -3.5    -5.0 -2.8 n.d.    -2.8 -2.6 n.d.
Current Account  -6.4 -4.4   -5.9  -3.8 n.d.   -4.4 -3.5 n.d.

Source: DANE; Banco de la República.

 

 


 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR
 
MONETARY AGGREGATES     Billions of pesos   Annual Variation (%)
 August 
2017		  September 
2017		 October 
2017		   August
2017		 September
2017		 October
2017
Monetary Base 78,773  79,364 78,911   1.04 1.02  1.04
M1  93,628  93,307 94,845   1.01 1.04  1.03
M2 416,699 414,831  417,643   1.05 1.05  1.05
M3 453,112 452,180  455,392   1.05 1.05  1.06
 CREDIT ADJUSTED NET DEBT PORTFOLIO              
Legal Currency 374,571   378,159 379,243    1.06 1.06 1.06
 Foreign Currency 21,189   20,871 21,346   0.95 0.96 0.94
 Total 395,760 399,030  400,589   1.05  1.05 1.06

  

INTEREST RATES     Percentage
May 
2017		 June
2017		 Julyo
2017		 August 
2017		 September 
2017		 October 
2017
Intervention Rate 1/ 6.25 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.25 5.00
IBR to one day 6.48 6.25 5.49 5.52 5.26 5.25
Interbank Rate (TIB)  6.48 6.26 5.49 5.52 5.26 5.25
DEPOSIT RATES            
DTF  6.17 5.96 5.65 5.58 5.52 5.46
Fixed-term Deposit Certificate to 90 days  5.77 5.84 5.35 5.51 5.44 5.31
ACTIVE RATES             
Banco de la República’s Active Rate 2/  14.02 13.50 13.58 13.27 12.69 13.05
Total placements 13.94 13.43 13.52 13.21 12.64 12.99
Consumption Credit 19.78  19.47 19.39 18.91 18.87 18.85
Ordinary Credit  13.37 12.89 12.64 12.27 12.04 12.08
Preferential Credit 10.09 9.75 9.47 9.14 8.77 8.78
Treasury Credit  10.68 10.57 10.26 9.47 9.17 8.77
Micro-credit (without Leasing) 36.76 36.59 36.94 36.60 36.52 37.00
Construction 3/ 10.86 10.85 10.83 10.71 10.19 9.98
Housing Acquisition 3/ 12.36 12.02 11.57 11.29 11.01 10.91

 

CPI INFLATION     Percentage
May 
2017		 June 
2017		 July 
2017		 August 
2017		 September
2017		 October 
2017
Total 4.37 3.99 3.40 3.87 3.97 4.05
Food 2.09 1.37 0.20 1.69 2.22 2.51
Tradables 6.24 6.01 5.03 5.57 5.68 5.61
Non-tradables (excluding food and regulated items) 4.88 4.41 4.09 3.75 3.41 3.38
Regulated 5.25 5.21 5.20 5.23 5.21 5.23

             
CORE INFLATION INDICATOR Excluding food 5.35 5.12 4.79 4.81 4.71 4.7
Excluding food and regulated items 5.09 4.87 4.72 4.59 4.44 4.44
Excluding primary food, public utilities, and fuel 5.29 5.07 4.88 4.56 4.31 4.13
CPI - Core 20 5.59 5.31 5.22 5.00 4.87 4.73

             

INFLATION EXPECTATION

  MONTHLY SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS TO ANALYSTS             
To December 2017  4.45 4.37 4.28 4.16 4.18 4.07
To December 2018  3.57 3.54 3.52 3.57 3.58 3.58
FORWARD BREAK-EVEN INFLATION (FBEI)             
For 2017  5.25 5.03 4.88 4.61 4.57 4.33
For 2018 3.38 3.25 3.27 3.43 3.48 3.50

 

 
 EXTERNAL SECTOR
TOTAL EXPORTS
  May 
2017		 June
2017		 July
2017		 August 
2017		 September 
2017		 October 
2017
FOB Value (millions of dollars)  3,400 2,788  3,067  3,073   3,283 n.d.
Annual Variation (%) 24.00 0.75 37.58 1.48 19.20 n.d.

             
TOTAL IMPORTS FOB Value (millions of dollars) 3,572 3,610  3,585  4,001   3,557 n.d.
Annual Variation (%) 4.20  2.38  12.20  -0.42   -5.74 n.d.

             
NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE (Pesos per US dollar) Average  2,924 2,958 3,037 2,973 2,917  2,953
End of:  2,920 3,038 2,995 2,937 2,936  3,011

             
REAL EXCHANGE RATE INDEX Non-Traditional RER index (CPI) 124.26 125.40 130.25 128.62  127.07 127.1
Non-Traditional RER index (PPI) 122.82 123.77 127.56 126.04 124.95 123.44

             
NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (NIR) Milllions off US dollars 47.153 47.234 47.531 47.569 47.514 47.416

 

     May 
2017		 June 
2017		 July 
2017 		 August
2017		 September 
2017		 October 
2017
NIR/M3 30.88 31.71  31.23 31.23 30.86 31.35

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INDICATORS 5/

   2015 2016   Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016   Q1 2017  Q2 2017 Q3 2017
NIR/GDP 16.04 16.51   16.90 17.27 n.d.    15.89 15.66  n.d.
NIR/(Current account deficit + current year debt amortization) 6/ 1.10 1.36   1.17 1.24 n.d.    1.28 1.14  n.d.

 

NET DIRECT INVESTMENT 4/     Millones de dólares
2015 2016    Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016   Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017
Foreign Direct Investment in Colombia  11,732 13,687   4,617 3,643 2,273   2,556 2,778 4,868
Colombian Investment Abroad 4,218 4,516   1,011 912 677   716 1,275 856

Source: Banco de la República.

NOTAS:
1/ This is Banco de la República’s benchmark intervention rate according to the decision reached by the Board of Directors in said month, enforceable since the first working day after that session.
2/ Calculated as the weighted average value per amount for consumption, credit, preferential, ordinary, and treasury rates. Due to the high rotation of treasury credit, its weight was determined as the fifth part of its weekly disbursement.
3/ This corresponds to non-VIS weighted housing rates in UVR and pesos.
4/ According to the information from the balance of payments.
5/ The indicators at the closing of each quarter are calculated based on the data from the last four quarters.
6/ This includes long-term amortizations and the balance of the short-term debt from a year before.