Statistical Annex - Governor´s Report. Published on May 3rd, 2017
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CURRENT SITUATION OF THE COLOMBIAN ECONOMY This is the Statistical Annex of the first edition of a new publication by the Governor of the Central Bank of Colombia. It is addressed to citizens, analysts, and domestic and foreign investors interested in learning about the most recent events in the Colombian economy, and their implications for monetary policy decision-making. The Statistical Annex will be updated on a monthly basis.
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| MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR | EXTERNAL SECTOR | GOVERNOR´S REPORT | |||
| MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES |
| Annual growth rate (%) unless otherwise stated | ||
| 2015 | 2016 | |
| GDP | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| Total Consumption | 3.6 | 2.0 |
| Gross Investment | 1.2 | -4.5 |
| Manufacturing | 1.7 | 3.0 |
| FOB Exports | -33.1 | -13.4 |
| FOB Imports | -15.4 | -17.0 |
| Trade Balance, FOB (% of GDP) | -4.8 | -3.6 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -6.4 | -4.4 |
Source: DANE, Banco de la República.
| MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR |
| Billions of pesos | Annual Variation (%) | ||||||
| MONETARY AGGREGATES | Mar. 20171/ | Dec. 2015 / Dec. 2014 | Dec. 2016 / Dec. 2015 | Jan. 2017 / Jan. 2016 | Feb. 2017 / Feb. 2016 | Mar. 2017 / Mar. 2016 | |
| Monetary Base | 75,786 | 17.11 | 2.52 | -4.41 | -5.21 | -0.95 | |
| M1 | 95,152 | 10.43 | -1.28 | -0.71 | -0.34 | -2.48 | |
| M2 | 409,150 | 12.49 | 6.91 | 7.44 | 6.06 | 6.21 | |
| M3 | 444,681 | 11.67 | 7.08 | 7.53 | 6.43 | 6.19 | |
| Billions of pesos | Annual Variation (%) | ||||||
| CREDIT | ADJUSTED NET DEBT PORTFOLIO | Mar. 20171/ | Dec. 2015 / Dec. 2014 | Dec. 2016 / Dec. 2015 | Jan. 2017 / Jan. 2016 | Feb. 2017 / Feb. 2016 | Mar. 2017 / Mar. 2016 |
| Legal Currency | 365,450 | 14.27 | 8.82 | 8.38 | 7.86 | 7.64 | |
| Foreign Currency | 21,155 | 13.17 | -13.56 | -20.32 | -19.62 | -10.50 | |
| Total | 386,606 | 14.19 | 7.23 | 6.26 | 5.89 | 6.46 | |
| Percentage | ||||||
| INTEREST RATES | December 2015 | December 2016 | January 2017 | February 2017 | March 2017 | |
| Intervention Rate | 5.75 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 7.25 | 7.00 | |
| IBR to one day | 5.59 | 7.64 | 7.50 | 7.47 | 7.19 | |
| Interbank Rate (TIB) | 5.59 | 7.65 | 7.51 | 7.48 | 7.19 | |
| DEPOSIT RATES | December 2015 | December 2016 | January 2017 | February 2017 | March 2017 | |
| DTF | 5.24 | 6.92 | 6.94 | 6.78 | 6.65 | |
| Fixed-term Deposit Certificate to 90 days | 3.86 | 5.43 | 6.94 | 6.75 | 6.22 | |
| ACTIVE RATES | December 2015 | December 2016 | January 2017 | February 2017 | March 2017 | |
| BR Active Rate 2/ | 12.33 | 14.45 | 15.11 | 14.87 | 15.13 | |
| Consumption Credit | 17.64 | 19.39 | 20.88 | 20.03 | 19.78 | |
| Ordinary Credit | 11.94 | 14.06 | 14.30 | 13.79 | 13.84 | |
| Preferential Credit | 9.40 | 11.58 | 11.27 | 11.37 | 11.22 | |
| Treasury Credit | 9.71 | 11.86 | 12.22 | 12.03 | 11.96 | |
| Micro-credit | 36.11 | 37.72 | 37.74 | 37.72 | 36.77 | |
| Construction | 10.26 | 12.14 | 11.76 | 11.43 | 11.64 | |
| Housing Acquisition | 11.26 | 12.59 | 12.45 | 12.56 | 12.42 | |
| Percentage | ||||||
| CPI INFLATION | December 2015 | December 2016 | January 2017 | February 2017 | March 2017 | |
| Total | 6.77 | 5.75 | 5.47 | 5.18 | 4.69 | |
| Food | 10.85 | 7.22 | 5.97 | 5.21 | 3.65 | |
| Tradables | 7.09 | 5.31 | 5.37 | 5.75 | 5.59 | |
| Non-tradables | 4.21 | 4.85 | 4.83 | 5.06 | 5.33 | |
| Regulated | 4.28 | 5.44 | 5.93 | 4.55 | 4.05 | |
| CORE INFLATION INDICATORS |
December 2015 | December 2016 | January 2017 | February 2017 | March 2017 | |
| Excluding food | 5.17 | 5.14 | 5.26 | 5.17 | 5.13 | |
| Excluding food and regulated items | 5.42 | 5.05 | 5.06 | 5.35 | 5.44 | |
| Excluding primary food, public utilities, and fuel | 5.93 | 6.03 | 5.95 | 5.74 | 5.61 | |
| CPI - Core 20 | 5.22 | 6.18 | 6.18 | 6.03 | 6.01 | |
| Percentage | ||||
| INFLATION EXPECTATIONS | MONTHLY SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS TO ANALYSTS | January 2017 | February 2017 | March 2017 |
| To December 2017 | 4.51 | 4.61 | 4.49 | |
| To December 2018 | 3.62 | 3.68 | 3.60 | |
| FORWARD BREAK-EVEN INFLATION (FBEI) | January 2017 | February 2017 | March 2017 | |
| For 2017 | 3.91 | 4.07 | 3.78 | |
| For 2018 | 3.12 | 3.32 | 3.28 | |
| EXTERNAL SECTOR |
| Pesos per US dollar | ||||||
| NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE | December 2015 | December 2016 | January 2017 | February 2017 | March 2017 | |
| Average | 3,244.51 | 3,009.53 | 2,944.65 | 2,881.68 | 2,943.49 | |
| End of: | 3,149.47 | 3,000.71 | 2,936.66 | 2,896.27 | 2,880.24 | |
| REAL EXCHANGE RATE INDEX | December 2015 | December 2016 | January 2017 | February 2017 | March 2017 | |
| ITCR NT (PPI) | 129.81 | 120.78 | 121.34 | 120.74 | 123.73 |
| Millions of US dollars | ||||||
| NET DIRECT INVESTMENT 3/ | December 2015 | December 2016 | January 2017 | February 2017 | March 2017 | |
| Foreign Direct Investment in Colombia | 11,732 | 13,593 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | |
| Colombian Investment Abroad | 4,218 | 4,517 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | |
| Millions of US dollars | |||||
| NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (NIR) | December 2015 | December 2016 | January 2017 | February 2017 | March 2017 |
| 46,731 | 46,675 | 46,982 | 46,986 | 46,932 | |
| INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INDICATORS | December 2015 | December 2016 | January 2017 | February 2017 | March 2017 | |
| NIR/M3 | 35.40 | 31.50 | 31.31 | 30.36 | 31.07 | |
| NIR/GDP | 16.00 | 16.50 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | |
| NIR/(Current account deficit + current year debt amortization) | 1.10 | 1.35 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Source: Banco de la República.
NOTES:
1/ Figures to 24 March 2017.
2/ The placement rate of Banco de la República is calculated as the weighted average value of consumer, credit, preferential, ordinary, and treasury rates. Because of the high rotation of the treasury portfolio its weighted is given by one fifth of its weekly disbursements.
3/ Corresponding to the information on the balance of payments.
n.a. Not available.
