Statistical Annex - Governor´s Report. Published on May 3rd, 2017

 

 


CURRENT SITUATION OF THE COLOMBIAN ECONOMY


This is the Statistical Annex of the first edition of a new publication by the Governor of the Central Bank of Colombia. It is addressed to citizens, analysts, and domestic and foreign investors interested in learning about the most recent events in the Colombian economy, and their implications for monetary policy decision-making. The Statistical Annex will be updated on a monthly basis.

 

 
 

MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES

 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR  EXTERNAL SECTOR GOVERNOR´S REPORT  

 

 

MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES

 

  Annual growth rate (%) unless otherwise stated
   2015 2016 
GDP 3.1 2.0
Total Consumption 3.6 2.0
Gross Investment 1.2 -4.5
Manufacturing 1.7 3.0
FOB Exports -33.1 -13.4
FOB Imports  -15.4 -17.0
Trade Balance, FOB (% of GDP) -4.8 -3.6
Current Account (% of GDP) -6.4 -4.4

Source: DANE, Banco de la República.
  

 

MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR

 

    Billions of pesos Annual Variation (%)
MONETARY AGGREGATES    Mar. 20171/  Dec. 2015 / Dec. 2014 Dec. 2016 / Dec. 2015 Jan. 2017 / Jan. 2016 Feb. 2017 / Feb. 2016 Mar. 2017 / Mar. 2016
Monetary Base 75,786   17.11  2.52  -4.41  -5.21 -0.95
M1  95,152  10.43  -1.28  -0.71  -0.34  -2.48
M2 409,150  12.49 6.91 7.44  6.06  6.21 
M3 444,681 11.67 7.08 7.53 6.43 6.19

 

    Billions of pesos Annual Variation (%)
 CREDIT  ADJUSTED NET DEBT PORTFOLIO Mar. 20171/  Dec. 2015 / Dec. 2014 Dec. 2016 / Dec. 2015 Jan. 2017 / Jan. 2016  Feb. 2017 / Feb. 2016 Mar. 2017 / Mar. 2016
Legal Currency 365,450 14.27 8.82 8.38 7.86 7.64
Foreign Currency 21,155 13.17  -13.56  -20.32 -19.62  -10.50 
Total 386,606 14.19 7.23 6.26 5.89 6.46

 

    Percentage
INTEREST RATES    December 2015 December 2016  January 2017  February 2017  March 2017
Intervention Rate 5.75 7.50 7.50 7.25 7.00
IBR to one day  5.59 7.64 7.50 7.47 7.19
Interbank Rate (TIB) 5.59 7.65 7.51 7.48 7.19
DEPOSIT RATES  December 2015 December 2016  January 2017  February 2017  March 2017
DTF 5.24 6.92 6.94 6.78 6.65
Fixed-term Deposit Certificate to 90 days 3.86 5.43 6.94 6.75 6.22
ACTIVE RATES  December 2015 December 2016  January 2017  February 2017  March 2017
BR Active Rate 2/  12.33 14.45 15.11 14.87 15.13
Consumption Credit  17.64 19.39 20.88 20.03 19.78
Ordinary Credit 11.94 14.06 14.30 13.79 13.84
Preferential Credit 9.40 11.58 11.27 11.37 11.22
Treasury Credit 9.71 11.86 12.22 12.03 11.96
Micro-credit 36.11 37.72 37.74 37.72 36.77
Construction  10.26 12.14 11.76 11.43 11.64
Housing Acquisition 11.26 12.59 12.45 12.56 12.42

 

    Percentage
CPI INFLATION    December 2015 December 2016  January  2017  February 2017  March 2017
Total 6.77 5.75 5.47 5.18 4.69
Food 10.85 7.22 5.97 5.21 3.65
Tradables 7.09 5.31 5.37 5.75 5.59
Non-tradables 4.21 4.85 4.83 5.06 5.33
Regulated 4.28 5.44 5.93 4.55 4.05
CORE INFLATION INDICATORS
  December 2015 December 2016  January  2017  February 2017  March 2017
Excluding food  5.17 5.14 5.26 5.17 5.13
Excluding food and regulated items 5.42 5.05 5.06 5.35 5.44
Excluding primary food, public utilities, and fuel 5.93 6.03 5.95 5.74 5.61
CPI - Core 20 5.22 6.18 6.18 6.03 6.01

 

    Percentage
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS   MONTHLY SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS TO ANALYSTS January 2017 February 2017 March 2017
To December 2017  4.51 4.61 4.49
To December 2018 3.62 3.68 3.60
FORWARD BREAK-EVEN INFLATION (FBEI)  January 2017 February 2017 March 2017
For 2017 3.91 4.07 3.78
For 2018 3.12 3.32 3.28


 

EXTERNAL SECTOR

 

    Pesos per US dollar
NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE    December 2015 December 2016  January 2017  February 2017  March 2017
Average 3,244.51 3,009.53 2,944.65 2,881.68 2,943.49
End of: 3,149.47 3,000.71 2,936.66 2,896.27 2,880.24

 

REAL EXCHANGE RATE INDEX    December 2015 December 2016  January 2017  February 2017  March 2017
ITCR NT (PPI) 129.81 120.78 121.34 120.74 123.73

 

    Millions of US dollars
NET DIRECT INVESTMENT 3/    December 2015 December 2016  January 2017  February 2017  March 2017
Foreign Direct Investment in Colombia  11,732 13,593 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Colombian Investment Abroad 4,218 4,517 n.a. n.a. n.a.

 

  Millions of US dollars
NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (NIR) December 2015 December 2016  January 2017  February 2017  March 2017
46,731 46,675 46,982 46,986 46,932

 

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INDICATORS     December 2015 December 2016  January 2017  February 2017  March 2017
NIR/M3 35.40 31.50 31.31 30.36 31.07
NIR/GDP 16.00 16.50 n.a. n.a. n.a.
NIR/(Current account deficit + current year debt amortization) 1.10 1.35 n.a. n.a. n.a.

Source: Banco de la República.
NOTES:
1/ Figures to 24 March 2017.
2/ The placement rate of Banco de la República is calculated as the weighted average value of consumer, credit, preferential, ordinary, and treasury rates. Because of the high rotation of the treasury portfolio its weighted is given by one fifth of its weekly disbursements.
3/ Corresponding to the information on the balance of payments.

n.a. Not available.

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