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Author(s) / Editor(s): 
  • Gómez G. José Eduardo, Ojeda Joya Jair, Tenjo Galarza Fernando, Zárate Solano Héctor Manuel

The Interdependence between Credit and Real Business Cycles in Latin American Economies

In this document we estimate credit and GDP cycles for three Latin-American economies and study their relation in the time and frequency domains. Cycles are estimated in order to analyze their medium and short-term frequencies. We find that short-term cycles are usually more volatile than medium-term cycles for credit and GDP in Chile, Colombia and Peru. We also find that credit-cycle peaks in the middle 1990s and middle 2000s precede notable GDP recessions 2 or 3 years later in these countries. Additionally, credit cycles in Latin-American economies tend to cause later movements in economic activity. This effect can be decomposed into two components: first, a negative effect in the case of business-cycle frequencies, and a positive effect in the case of medium-term GDP fluctuations.

 

May 2013. Disclaimer: The findings, recommendations, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

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