Post-graduation from the original sin problem The effects of investor participation on sovereign debt markets
La serie Borradores de Economía, de la Subgerencia de Estudios Económicos del Banco de la República, contribuye a la difusión y promoción de la investigación realizada por los empleados de la institución. En múltiples ocasiones estos trabajos han sido el resultado de la colaboración con personas de otras instituciones nacionales o internacionales. Esta serie se encuentra indexada en Research Papers in Economics (RePEc).
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Abstract
We evaluate the effects of the sovereign debt structure by examining various degrees of bond market participation and diversification within different bond maturities and investor type. We use a unique Colombian panel dataset, comprised of all government bond maturities in the hands of public and private institutions during 2006-2018. For identification, we propose an instrumental variable approach, specific to each investor group. We find that an increase in non-residents’ market share of a 1 percentage point reduces bond yields by 35% and lowers volatility by 0.8%, relative to their mean values. Alternatively, we see an opposite effect for both pension funds and the banking sector. Finally, we find that market concentration makes local-currency yields more sensitive to global financial shocks.