DÍA 1 - Una revisión de la política monetaria en condiciones de incertidumbre: 25° Taller de Modelización Macroeconómica en bancos centrales

- Las inscripciones en línea estarán abiertas hasta el martes 8 de noviembre de 2022. Para participar como asistente puede registrarse en http://www.mmwbanrep.com/

- La confirmación de su registro y los detalles de la conexión serán enviadas por los organizadores días previos al evento. 

- Realización del CBMMW: noviembre 9, 10 y 11 de 2022.

- Todas las sesiones se realizarán en inglés.

El Better Policy Project y el Banco de la República serán los anfitriones del 25º Taller de Modelización Macroeconómica en Bancos Centrales (CBMMW por su sigla en inglés). Los talleres CBMMW se iniciaron en el Banco de la Reserva de Nueva Zelanda en 1998 después de haber desarrollado un sistema de análisis de políticas y pronóstico prospectivo (FPAS) basado en modelos para respaldar su régimen flexible de metas de inflación. Desde 1998 ha pasado de banco central a banco central con el propósito de conectar los esfuerzos de modelación macroeconómica tanto en los equipos de pronóstico de los bancos centrales como en el ámbito académico. Para conmemorar su 25ª edición, el taller de este año se titulará "Revisiting Monetary Policymaking Under Uncertainty".

Para este año contamos con un increíble grupo de académicos quienes expondrán en las conferencias y en las discusiones sobre el futuro de la modelización macroeconómica en los bancos centrales. Puede consultar la agenda para cada día en este portal.

Agenda día 1 - miércoles, 9 de noviembre de 2022

Room 1
Opening remarks

8:30-9:00 Leonardo Villar, Governor, Banco de la República and Douglas Laxton, The Better Policy Project

Room 1
PANEL: FUTURE OF POLICY MODELING

9:00-10:00 

William White (Senior Fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, former chairman of the Economic and Development Review Committee at the OECD)
Jérôme Henry (Principal Adviser - DG Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability, ECB)
Jesper Linde (Advisor and Chief of Monetary and Modeling Unit, IMF)
Marco del Negro (Research Advisor and Director, Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center, NY FED)
Franz Hamman (Chair of the panel) (Director, Macroeconomic Modeling Department, Banco de la República)

Buffer / Break 10:00-10:30

Room 1
SESSION 1A: New frontiers in macroeconomic model estimation

10:30-11:00 A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars
Saeed Zaman (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

11:00-11:30 DSGE model estimation with interest rate expectations in the dataset
Gregory de Walque, Thomas Lejeune, Ansgar Rannenberg (National Bank of Belgium)

11:30-12:00 Bayesian method of moments to estimate non-linear DSGE models
Valerio Scalone (Banque de France, European Central Bank)

Room 2
SESSION 1B: Uncertainty shocks and the macroeconomy

10:30-11:00 Uncertainty shocks and the monetary-macroprudential policy mix
Valeriu Nalban, Andra Smădu (IMF, De Nederlandsche Bank & University of Groningen)

11:00-11:30 Business Cycle Fluctuations: Financial Shocks versus Uncertainty Shocks
Roberto A. De Santis, Wouter Van der Veken (ECB, Ghent University)

11:30-12:00 
Macroeconomic Transmission of (Un-) Predictable Uncertainty Shocks
José Ferrer, John Rogers, Jiawen Xu (University of Virginia, Fudan University, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)    

Room 3
SESSION 1C: Topics in monetary policy I: Developments in monetary policy models

10:30-11:00 Causal Effects of Countercyclical Interest Rates: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard
Kris James Mitchener, Gonçalo Pina (Center for Advanced Studies of Behavioral Sciences, ESCP)

11:00-11:30 Learning to be Coherent
Guido Ascari, Sophocles Mavroeidis, Nigel McClung (De Nederlandsche Bank, University of Oxford, Bank of Finland)

11:30-12:00 Endogenous Technology, Scarring and Fiscal Policy
Michaela Elfsbacka Schmöller (Bank of Finland)    

Room 4
SESSION 1D: Commodity prices and monetary policy

10:30-11:00 State of the Economy Uncertainty or Structure of the Economy Uncertainty
Thierry U. KAME BABILLA (University of Yaounde II and Euro Area Business Cycle Network)

11:00-11:30 Monetary Policy, Trade, and Commodity Price Fluctuations
Galip Kemal Ozhan, Lawrence L. Schembri (Bank of Canada)

11:30-12:00 Commodity price uncertainty comovement: Does it matter for global economic growth?
Laurent Ferrara, Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou, Athanasios Triantafyllou (SKEMA Business School, University of Piraeus, ESSEX Business School)

Buffer / Break / Lunch 12:00-13:00

Room 1
SESSION 2A: COVID-19 and inflation dynamics

13:00-13:30 Understanding Post-Covid Inflation Dynamics
Martin Harding, Jesper Linde, Mathias Trabandt (Bank of Canada, IMF, Goethe University Frankfurt)

13:30-14:00 Pricing under Distress
S. Boragan Aruoba, Andres Fernandez, Daniel Guzman, Ernesto Pasten, Felipe Saffie (University of Maryland, IMF, University of British Columbia, Central Bank of Chile, University of Virginia, Darden School of Business)

14:00-14:30 Impact of the new monetary policy toolkit during COVID-19 in the Dominican Republic
Fadua Camacho, Joel González, Nabil López, Salomé Pradel (Central Bank of the Dominican Republic)

Room 2
SESSION 2B: Central Bank Communications and expectations


13:00-13:30 A Survey-based Instrument to Analyze Monetary Policy Responses in Latin America
Oscar Jaulin-Mendez (Universidad Carlos III)

13:30-14:00 Cacophony in Central Banking? Evidence from euro area speeches using a new approach
Martin Feldkircher, Paul Hofmarcher, Pierre L. Siklos (Vienna School of International Studies, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, University of Salzburg)        

14:00-14:30 Secrets of the Temple or Noise of the Agora? 
Moritz Pfeifer, Giancarlo Salazar, Mohamed Elguindi (Université Paris Nanterre, SciencesPo Paris)

    

Room 3
SESSION 2C: Topics in Monetary Policy II: New Methods and Data

13:00-13:30 Optimal robust monetary policy in a small open emerging economy: the case of Mexico
Marine Charlotte André, Sebastián Medina Espidio (Banco de México)

13:30-14:00 Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico
Remy Beauregard, Jens H. E. Christensen, Eric Fischer, Simon Zhu (University of California at Davis, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, University of Texas at Austin)

14:00-14:30 Constructing a regional indicator of economic activity in Peru using Bayesian dynamic factors
Mirian Yanet Perez Quispe, Santiago Bohorquez Correa (University National of San Cristobal de Huamanga, Eafit)    

Room 4
SESSION 2D: Unconventional monetary policy and macroeconomic risks I

13:00-13:30 State-Contingent Forward Guidance
Julien Albertini,Valentin Jouvanceau, Stéphane Moyen (Univ Lyon & Université Lumière Lyon 2, Lietuvos Bankas, Bundesbank)

13:30-14:00 Unconventional credit policies during crises: A structural analysis of the Chilean experience during the COVID-19 pandemic
Benjamín García, Mario González, Sebastián Guarda, Manuel Paillacar (Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, Princeton University, Central Bank of Chile)

14:00-14:30 Conducting Unconventional Monetary Policy with Foreign Exchange Reserves
Min Kim (Rutgers University)

Organizado por:

The Better Policy Project y Banco de la República - Colombia.


Source URL: https://www.banrep.gov.co/revision-politica-monetaria-condiciones-incertidumbre-25deg-taller-modelizacion-macroeconomica