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Author(s) / Editor(s): 
  • Davinson Stev Abril Salcedo
  • Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia
  • Daniel Parra-Amado

Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El Niño and Colombian food prices (Available in Spanish only)

The series Borradores de Economía (Working Papers on Economics) contributes to the dissemination and promotion of the work by researchers from the institution. On multiple occasions, these works have been the result of collaborative work with individuals from other national or international institutions. This series is indexed at Research Papers in Economics (RePEc). 

Publicado el: 
Monday, 29 July 2019

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors



Extreme weather events, like a strong El Niño (ENSO), affect society in many different ways especially in the context of recent globe warming. In the Colombian case, ENSO had a signicant impact on consumer food prices during the strongest event in 2015-16. Our research evaluates the relationship between ENSO and Colombian food inflation growth by using a smooth transition non-linear model. We estimate the impacts of a strong ENSO on food inflation growth by adopting Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRFs) and the results suggest that the weather shocks are transitory and asymmetric on inflation. A strong El Niño shock has a signicate effect on the food inflation growth from six to nine months after the shock and the accumulated elasticity is close to 465 basic points. We build the GIRFs for eight different episodes associated with a strong El Niño in the period corresponding from March 1962 to December 2018 and there is no evidence of changes in the size of Colombian food inflation growth responses over time.