C15

We examine the extent in which the ratios of book-to-market and earnings-to-price predict excess asset returns in an emerging market economy like Colombia. We want to find the magnitude in which these ratios help to forecast excess returns and if there is any evidence …

This document studies the determinants of changes in labor and non-labor income inequality from a microeconomic perspective to help in the design and formulation of public policies that improve the situation of income inequalities in Colombia. The study is carried out for the national…

How much of the changes in the exchange rate is passed through to inflation is a question of main interest to the monetary authority, investors, the real sector, and the government itself.

Even though international authorities encourage open and wide access to large value payment systems, the optimal level of access, or tiering, is still an open question. In the case of real-time gross settlement systems (RTGS), the level of access, or tiering, may be limited by the tradeoff…

A new methodology for testing and dating economic bubbles based on a sign test with recursive median adjustment is presented. The methodology, originally proposed by Soo and Shin (2001) to detect random walks, is well-suited, theoretically, to deal with the many features of high-frequency…

We estimate a non-parametrical Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and find strong evidence rejecting the classical linear CAPM. Furthermore, we find inconsistent linear betas for a series of stocks in the Colombian stock exchange (BVC), supporting the hypothesis of a better and consistent…

Colombia experienced a deep recession in 1999-2003. Growth slowed by 4.2%, and investment by 34.6%. Was the severity of the recession due to a financial accelerator mechanism á la Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999)? To answer this question, this paper estimates a dynamic stochastic general…

Using Bayesian estimation techniques, we estimate a small open economy DSGE model with credit-market imperfections for the Colombian economy. Using the estimated model we investigate what are the sources of business cycle fluctuations. We show that balance-sheet effects play an important role in…

An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as…