Potential Output

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  • Borradores de Economía - Estimating the Output Gap After COVID: How to Address Unprecedented Macroeconomic Variations

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    Abstract

    This document reviews the potential macroeconomic effects of issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) for the use of individuals and businesses. A careful selection of the architecture, and the economic and technological design aspects of this digital form of central bank money…

  • A trend-cycle decomposition with hysteresis

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    Abstract

    The business cycle is the cycle in the output gap and also in a stationary measure of trend output. Both the output gap and trend output are driven by joint trend-cycle shocks. The model is a univariate trend-cycle decomposition with hysteresis in trend output that enables the…

  • Finance neutral potential output: an evaluation on an emerging market monetary policy context

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    In this paper output gaps that include financial cycle information are evaluated against models used in policy analysis by the Colombian central bank. Employing this dataset is no trivial matter, since policy related models are the only relevant yardstick, and emerging economies (such as…