business cycles

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An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates

In this paper, we propose an alternative methodology to determine the existence of credit booms, which is a complex and crucial issue for policymakers. In particular, we exploit the Mendoza and Terrones (2008)’s idea that macroeconomic aggregates other than the credit growth rate contain...

Employment and Business Cycle Persistence: Does the Composition of Employment Matter for Economic Recoveries?

Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies

Fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). We document how these fluctuations correlate strongly with the business cycle in EMEs. We then embed a commodity sector into a multi-country EMEs business cycle model where...

What Drives Business Cycles and International Trade in Emerging Market Economies?

This paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in explaining business cycle and international trade developments in fifteen emerging market economies. Results from sign-restricted VARs show that developments in real output, inflation and international trade variables are...

“Tropical” Real Business Cycles? A Bayesian Exploration

Can frictionless small open economy models driven solely by technology shocks account for business cycles in developing countries? We do not find evidence of it. We build a DSGE model that jointly includes a variety of real perturbations in addition to technology shocks, such as procyclical...

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