This document reviews the potential macroeconomic effects of issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) for the use of individuals and businesses. A careful selection of the architecture, and the economic and technological design aspects of this digital form of central bank money…
business cycles
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The business cycle is the cycle in the output gap and also in a stationary measure of trend output. Both the output gap and trend output are driven by joint trend-cycle shocks. The model is a univariate trend-cycle decomposition with hysteresis in trend output that enables the…
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This paper proposes comprehensive measures of the Latin American business cycle that help to infer the expected deepness of recessions, and strength of expansions, as they unfold in real time. These measures are based on the largest country economies in the region by accounting for…
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Fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). We document how these fluctuations correlate strongly with the business cycle in EMEs. We then embed a commodity sector into a multi-country EMEs business cycle model where…
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In this paper, we propose an alternative methodology to determine the existence of credit booms, which is a complex and crucial issue for policymakers. In particular, we exploit the Mendoza and Terrones (2008)’s idea that macroeconomic aggregates other than the credit growth rate contain…
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This paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in explaining business cycle and international trade developments in fifteen emerging market economies. Results from sign-restricted VARs show that developments in real output, inflation and international trade variables are…
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Can frictionless small open economy models driven solely by technology shocks account for business cycles in developing countries? We do not find evidence of it. We build a DSGE model that jointly includes a variety of real perturbations in addition to technology shocks, such as procyclical…