Financial Crisis

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Beyond Bubbles: The role of asset prices in early-warning indicators

Asset prices have recently become a common topic in economic debate. Nevertheless, much time has been spent in determining if they effectively exhibit a bubble component, and not in examining whether asset prices affectively contain relevant information concerning future market developments....

Financial Crises, Debt Volatility and Optimal Taxes

We study …nancial crises in a small open production economy subject to credit constraint and uncertainty on the value of debt repayments. We …nd that the possibility of reducing the severity of future crises encourages the central planner (CP) to increase both the crisis frequency and current...

Macroprudential vs. Ex-post Policy Interventions: when Domestic Taxes are Relevant for International Lenders

We argue that international lenders take into account that taxes (or subsidies) affect borrowers’ available income for debt repayments. Using an endowment-economy model, we show that by incorporating this fact into the analysis of …financial crises from the pecuniary externality perspective, ex-...

Optimal crisis interventions in an open economy with credit constraint

In an open-economy model with financial constraint, Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2017) propose an expression for a capital control policy. From this expression, they argue that the optimal tax, i.e. the one that solves the overborrowing problem, is indeterminate when crises occur (i.e. when the...

Relevance of the fiscal-policy setup in the analysis of macroprudential and ex-post financial crisis interventions

In a previous paper (Parra-Polania and Vargas, 2015) we modify the financial constraint of a very standard model to incorporate the fact that international lenders take into account that taxes (or subsidies) affect borrowers’ income available for debt repayments, and find that ex-post...

Stock Market Volatility Spillovers: Evidence for Latin America

We extend the framework of Diebold and Yilmaz [2009] and Diebold and Yilmaz [2012] and construct volatility spillover indexes using a DCC-GARCH framework to model the multivariate relationships of volatility among assets. We compute spillover indexes directly from the series of asset returns and...

The external risks of financial integration for emerging economies

The integration of emerging economies in world financial markets allowed these countries to import foreign capital. In some cases, however, the capital inflows have been interrupted by sudden reversals and severe financial crises. Although excessive borrowing is a necessary condition for a...

Volatility Spillovers among Global Stock Markets: Measuring Total and Directional Effects

In this study we construct volatility spillover indexes for some of the major stock market indexes in the world. We use a DCC-GARCH framework for modelling the multivariate relationships of volatility among markets. Extending the framework of Diebold and Yilmaz [2012] we compute spillover...

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