Early-Warning Indicators

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Beyond Bubbles: The role of asset prices in early-warning indicators

Asset prices have recently become a common topic in economic debate. Nevertheless, much time has been spent in determining if they effectively exhibit a bubble component, and not in examining whether asset prices affectively contain relevant information concerning future market developments....

Beyond Bubbles: The role of asset prices in early-warning indicators

Asset price bubbles are amongst the most talked-about yet misunderstood topics in economics. Theoretical researchers debate between rational, nonrational or even non-existent bubbles, while empiricists tackle the issue with state-of-the-art econometric tools yielding mixed results.

Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia

This paper is an attempt at constructing a simple and effective macroprudential tool for policymakers. By integrating the joint occurrences of the main financial markets in Colombia into a single Financial Conditions Index (FCI), we hope to synthesize the information embedded in them regarding...

Financial conditions index: Early and leading indicator for Colombia

This paper is an attempt at constructing a simple and eff