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Author(s) / Editor(s): 
  • Sebastián García-Andrade

Effects of the 2014 J.P. Morgan index rebalancing on Colombian sovereign bond yields in local currency

The series Borradores de Economía (Working Papers on Economics) contributes to the dissemination and promotion of the work by researchers from the institution. On multiple occasions, these works have been the result of collaborative work with individuals from other national or international institutions. This series is indexed at Research Papers in Economics (RePEc). 

Publicado el: 
Wednesday, 16 October 2019

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

 

Abstract

 

In March 2014, J.P. Morgan announced the increase of Colombia's weight in its public debt indexes for emerging markets GBI-EM, which had significant impact in the local-currency sovereign bond market. This document evaluates the effect that this increase had on the yields of the Colombian sovereign bonds denominated in Colombian pesos (TES), applying both a difference-in-difference estimation and the synthetic control method proposed in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003). The results show that the rebalancing might have caused a permanent reduction of between 63 and 98 basis points in the 10-year TES yields. These results could be a consequence of the higher participation of foreign investors that occurred after the change in the public debt indices and this would be the main transmission mechanism behind the decrease in local bond yields.