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A Dynamic Factor Model for the Colombian Inflation

We use a dynamic factor model proposed by Stock and Watson [1998, 1999, 2002a,b] to forecast Colombian inflation. The model includes 92 monthly series observed over the period 1999:01-2008:06. The results show that for short-run horizons, factor model forecasts significantly outperformed the...

A Leading Index for the Colombian Economic Activity

In this paper, we propose a methodology for calculating a leading index of the economic activity based on a modification of Stock and Watson’s (1989, 1991, 1992) approach. We use Kalman filter techniques for estimating the state space representation of the leading index model. The methodology is...

An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates

In this paper, we propose an alternative methodology to determine the existence of credit booms, which is a complex and crucial issue for policymakers. In particular, we exploit the Mendoza and Terrones (2008)’s idea that macroeconomic aggregates other than the credit growth rate contain...

An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates

In this paper, we propose an alternative methodology to determine the existence of credit booms, which is a complex and crucial issue for policymakers. In particular, we exploit the Mendoza and Terrones’s (2008) idea that macroeconomic aggregates contain valuable information to...

Banking fragility in Colombia: An empirical analysis based on balance sheets

In this paper, we study the empirical relationship between credit funding sources and the financial vulnerability of the Colombian banking system. We propose a statistical model to measure and predict banking fragility episodes associated with credit funding sources classified into retail...

Bayesian Combination for Inflation Forecasts: The Effects of a Prior Based on Central Banks’ Estimates

Typically, central banks use a variety of individual models (or a combination of models) when forecasting inflation rates. Most of these require excessive amounts of data, time, and computational power; all of which are scarce when monetary authorities meet to decide over policy interventions....

Bayesian Forecast Combination for Inflation Using Rolling Windows: An Emerging Country Case

Typically, when forecasting inflation rates, there are a variety of individual models and a combination of several of these models. We implement a Bayesian shrinkage combination methodology to include information that is not captured by the individual models using expert forecasts as prior...

Bayesian Model Averaging. An Application to Forecast Inflation in Colombia

An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as...

Comparison of Methods for Estimating the Uncertainty of Value at Risk

Value at Risk (VaR) is a market risk measure widely used by risk managers and market regulatory authorities. There is a variety of methodologies proposed in the literature for the estimation of VaR. However, few of them get to say something about its distribution or its confidence intervals....

Credit Funding and Banking Fragility: An Empirical Analysis for Emerging Economies

This paper proposes an empirical model to identify and forecast banking fragility episodes using information on the credit funding sources. We predict the probability of occurrence of such episodes 0, 3 and 6 months ahead employing a Bayesian Model Averaging of logistic regressions. The...

Data Revisions and the Output Gap

Preliminary and delayed Colombian GDP reports are replaced with optimal in-sample now-casts of “true” GDP figures derived from a model for data revisions. The new GDP time series is augmented with optimal out-of-sample forecasts and back-casts of the “true” GDP figures derived from the same...

Early warning indicators for the private corporate sector in Colombia

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors

 

Finance neutral potential output: an evaluation on an emerging market monetary policy context

In this paper output gaps that include financial cycle information are evaluated against models used in policy analysis by the Colombian central bank. Employing this dataset is no trivial matter, since policy related models are the only relevant yardstick, and emerging economies (such as...

Forecasting the Colombian Unemployment Rate Using Labour Force Flows

 

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

 

 

Great Expectations? Evidence from Colombia’s Exchange Rate Survey

In this document we use the Expectations Survey conducted monthly by the Central Bank of Colombia during the period of October 2003 – August 2012. We find that exchange rate revaluations were generally followed by expectations of further revaluation in the short run (1 month), but by...

Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks in Chile and Colombia

Structural VAR and Structural VEC models were estimated for Chile and Colombia, aiming at identifying fiscal policy shocks in both countries between 1990 and 2005. The impulse responses obtained allow the calculation of a peso-for-peso ($/$) effect on output of a shock to public spending and to...

Modeling Data Revisions

A dynamic linear model for data revisions and delays is proposed. This model extends Jacobs & Van Norden's [13] in two ways. First, the "true" data series is observable up to a fixed period of time M. And second, preliminary figures might be biased estimates of the true series. Otherwise,...

Nowcasting economic activity with electronic payments data: A predictive modeling approach

 

The opinions contained in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not commit Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.

 

On Forecast Evaluation

We propose to assess the performance of k forecast procedures by exploring the distributions of forecast errors and error losses. We argue that non systematic forecast errors minimize when their distributions are symmetric and unimodal, and that forecast accuracy should be assessed through...

Whose Balance Sheet is this? Neural Networks for Banks’ Pattern Recognition

The balance sheet is a snapshot that portraits the financial position of a firm at a specific point of time. Under the reasonable assumption that the financial position of a firm is unique and representative, we use a basic artificial neural network pattern recognition method on Colombian banks...