Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian Case
La serie Borradores de Economía es una publicación de la Subgerencia de Estudios Económicos del Banco de la República. Los trabajos son de carácter provisional, las opiniones y posibles errores son responsabilidad exclusiva del autor y sus contenidos no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva.
Evidence of the causal long-term relationship between budget deficit, money growth and inflation in Colombia is analyzed in this paper, considering the standard (M1), the narrowest (M0-Base) and the broadest (M3) definitions of money supply. Using a vector error correction (VEC) model with quarterly data over the last 25 years, the study found a close relationship between inflation and money growth on the one hand, and between money growth and fiscal deficit, on the other. The size of the long-term parameters looks acceptable, particularly when compared to what is seen in other countries, using analogous or different techniques. The conclusion, supported by several statistical tests, is that the Sargent and Wallace hypothesis would be the most appropriate approach to understanding the dynamics of these variables.
The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Central Bank of Colombia. The author wishes to thank to Karen Rodriguez for her valuable technical assistance.
