Author(s) / Editor(s): 
Luis Eduardo ArangoFernando Arias Luz Adriana Flórez

Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices

Julio
2008

A threefold analysis of commodity prices is carried out to observe their long-run behaviour, their short-run properties and the main determinants. According to the evidence, the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis does not seem to be a property of most prices. The cycles of commodity prices are asymmetric but contrary to the case of economic activity, the longer phase corresponds to slumps. Interest rates seem to maintain a negative relationship with commodity prices.

The series Borradores de Economía is published by the Economic Studies Department at the Banco de la República (Central Bank of Colombia). The works published are provisional, and their authors are fully responsible for the opinions expressed in them, as well as for possible mistakes. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Banco de la República or its Board of Directors. 

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  • Español
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This content has been translated into English for informational purposes. Upon any query regarding its interpretation or enforceability, the Spanish version shall be deemed official, and will prevail over the English version. The authors of specific texts such as working papers or articles select the language of publication; therefore, there might be cases in which the content may only be available in English. 

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